LMT512.21-1.14%
LMT · US
1y range: 491.64 → 676.70 · as of 2026-09-29
AI digest — today
Lockheed Martin profiteert van stijgende defensie-uitgaven wereldwijd. UBS verhoogde rating naar Buy met price target van $674 (+16% vs $581), terwijl nieuwe contracten (HIMARS $729M voor Zweden, Patriot-interesse Europa) en een recordbacklog van $230B het groeiverhaal ondersteunen. Missile-segment groeit 19% met leveringen vanaf 2027.
Generated 2026-09-09 06:00
Weekly thesis
Defensie-cyclus in volle gang met recordbacklog en sterke EPS-beats, maar waardering op 17.6x P/E laat weinig ruimte voor teleurstelling op korte termijn.
Bull case
- Recordbacklog $230B + Missile-segment groei 19% = zichtbare omzetgroei 2027-2028; UBS target $674 impliceert +16% upside - Geopolitieke tailwind: HIMARS Zweden ($729M), Patriot-interesse Europa, Space Force GPS ($114M) tonen brede vraag naar LMT-platforms - EPS-beat-patroon: 4 van 5 quarters sloegen (Q4 +29%, Q2 +10.5%, Q3 +8.2%), suggereert operationele leverage en execution-kwaliteit - Dividend yield 2.6% + defensie-defensief karakter trekt institutionele inflows in onzekere macro-omgeving - Q2 revenue +62% YoY toont acceleratie; backlog-to-revenue ratio geeft jaren zichtbaarheid
Bear case
- Waardering 17.6x P/E dicht bij consensus $629 target — weinig margin of safety; één miss kan 5-10% corrigeren - Q1/2026 miss (-5.2% vs est) toont volatiliteit; leveringsvertragingen of supply-chain issues kunnen groei afremmen - Politiek risico: defensie-budgetten afhankelijk van geopolitieke prioriteiten; vredesonderhandelingen of budgetdruk kunnen vraag temperen - Quantum/IBM-partnership (IBM Quantum System Two) is PR-waarde, niet materieel voor core defensie-inkomsten op 1-6M horizon - Analyst consensus 'Moderate Buy' (6 Strong Buy vs 14 Hold) suggereert geen unanimiteit; upside-targets variëren sterk
Recent material news
- Trump Touts 'Exquisite and Elite' Weapons Production as Iran War Costs Hit $33.4 Billion, First F-35A Suffers Battle Damage Among Dozens of Aircraft2026-09-15T03:20
- Defense Primes Face Earnings Test as Value Clashes With Weak Momentum2026-09-14T12:36
- Rocket Lab's Core Business Makes The Neutron Gamble Worth Taking2026-09-11T17:23
- How Could Project Anaconda Expand Kratos' Role in Naval Radar?2026-09-11T13:57
- AeroVironment's Record Backlog and Earnings Beat Fuel Recovery Case2026-09-10T18:25
- Lockheed Martin Secures $114M U.S. Space Force Contracts To Upgrade GPS Ground Segment2026-09-10T12:08
- IBM and Lockheed Bet Big on Europe’s Thriving Quantum Scene2026-09-10T07:00
- UBS Upgrades Lockheed Martin to Buy from Neutral2026-09-08T16:29
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